Category: Asset Allocation
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Is Asset Location Strategy Worth the Effort?
Last week, we discussed the different qualities and benefits of pre-tax accounts like Traditional IRAs and 401Ks compared to Roth accounts. Since then, there were a couple of media discussions that go more into depth on the tax implications of asset location decisions. First, Merit Financial Advisor’s posted an excellent video breaking down the “problems”…
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Lifecycle Investing and Stock Market Mean Reversion
A short follow-up this week to a post a couple of weeks ago when we discussed the stock market’s longest losing streak. At the time, I was working on an asset liability matching exercise to inform my asset allocation. My interest in this topic was inspired by a presentation from Bill Bernstein over at Paul…
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From Market Noise to Economic Footprint | Part 2
If you are interested in fundamental weighting, several prominent asset management companies have created fundamentally-weighted index funds. Many of these funds are based on the FTSE RAFI series of fundamental equity indexes, which have been compiled in collaboration with Research Affiliates since 2005. These indexes are constructed using a combination of four core fundamental measures:…
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From Market Noise to Economic Footprint | Part 1
With the Magnificent 7 stocks now representing close to 35% of the S&P 500, it might be a good time to review how these indexes are composed. If you are in the Financial Independence (FI) community, you are most likely familiar with market capitalization (cap-weighted) indexing, an approach used in major benchmarks like the S&P…
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The CAPE ratio, the Merton Share and Your Asset Allocation | Part 3
In the previous two articles, we teased the Merton Share as a rational framework for portfolio asset allocation. Now, let’s dive into how you can use both the CAPE ratio and the Merton Share to align your portfolio with your investing horizon, risk appetite, and current market valuations, without constant tinkering.
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The CAPE ratio, the Merton Share and Your Asset Allocation | Part 2
Last week we discussed how the CAPE ratio of the S&P 500 is historically high at over 37, making the expected return on equities relatively low. And when we compare the earnings yield to the real return on 10-year TIPS, we see that the “equity risk premium” is quite small today. However, predicting the future is tough,…
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The CAPE ratio, the Merton Share and Your Asset Allocation | Part 1
If you’re part of the Financial Independence (FI) community, you’ve probably built your retirement dreams on a pretty common assumption: stock market returns average 8–10%. To be fair, the S&P 500 has delivered, hitting a 10.2% compound annual return from 1928 through 2024. Popular FIRE calculators like Networthify err on the conservative side and dial…
Fictitious Capitalist 